Seafood is a critical protein source for more than 2.5 billion people worldwide, but decades of overfishing have decimated fish populations, while warming waters have pushed species into new territory and affected their reproductive cycles. Already, according to World Wildlife Fund’s 2015 stock assessment, populations of fish that frequent dinner plates—including tuna, mackerel, and bonitos—have fallen 74 percent since 1970.
Malin L. Pinsky, a marine ecologist at Rutgers University, believes runaway climate change could, one day, be the final nail in the coffin for global fish markets.
“That’s a real concern when billions of people rely on fish as a key part of their nutrition,” he said. “If temperatures continue to climb unabated, we’ll find water that’s too hot for many species. Many species would find they can’t get enough oxygen. We wouldn’t recognize many of the fish off our coasts. It’s not an ocean I’d be excited to pass off to my kids.”
Before Trump’s election, limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius — though it still would bring droughts, floods, and sea level rise — seemed like a reasonable goal for the world to aspire to. Even then, that threshold was still a difficult stretch, given the current pace of actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Now, to many looking at Trump’s plans to revive coal, drill for oil, and strike down climate policies, that goal seems like a pipe dream. The most dire climate predictions, including famine, flooding, and plagues, are back on the table.
The seas, and the people who rely on them, could take the biggest hit.
Fewer fish in the sea makes it harder for fishermen to catch their quotas, even as fishing technology has improved with bigger nets, better fish-finders, and faster boats. Demand, too, has increased: In 2015, global fish consumption rose to over 44 pounds per person a year — four times what it was in 1950. That demand has left 85 percent of the world’s fish stocks over-exploited, depleted, or fully exploited. Meanwhile, population crashes—such as among the west coast’s sardines—are forcing regulators to close fisheries early and more often, further hindering annual catch levels.
As species shift territories, fishermen respond accordingly, chasing the fish. West African seas, for example, for the past 30 years have seen EU trawlers scooping up hundreds of thousands of pounds of fish every day to make up for the dwindling stocks in European waters. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, all West African fisheries are already over-exploited, and the region’s coastal fisheries have declined 50 percent. Under expected climate warming, catches across the tropics are expected to decline a further 40 percent by 2050, even though some 400 million people in Africa and Southeast Asia rely on caught fish for their protein—not to mention the millions of jobs at stake, such as artisanal fishing.
Facing that bleak possibility, scientists have continued to advise countries and regulators on how best to manage fisheries, oceans, and marine habitats. It’s a job made more difficult when world leaders don’t offer a friendly ear. With President Trump taking office, some climate scientists have had to shift their focus from conducting new research to preserving baseline data sets. Fifty scientists have volunteered to make sure the climate change data stored on U.S. government websites, such as the Environmental Protection Agency and NASA, are stored on non-government computer servers, just in case the Trump administration removes them.
Data may be even more difficult to collect in the future, as federal funding for climate change-related studies—such as the $5 million in grants awarded last year to study sustainable fishery management—could be a thing of the past.
Oceana’s Matthews is unnerved by the possibility that the United States may give up its position as a world leader on climate-change science. “I began my ocean science career studying El Niño, a global climatic phenomenon with massive impacts on so many industries, including fisheries, agriculture and energy,” Matthews said. “The more we understand how the climate works, the better we can anticipate changes and plan for their consequences—including economic ones. We ignore this at our own peril.”
Subscribe to Vocativ:
Find us everywhere else:
Website:
:
:
:
Snapchat:
Vocativ explores the nexus of media and technology, where science meets storytelling. We use proprietary technology to examine the uncharted space of the Deep Web, covering topics that are vital to our changing world. us for more!
